August 6, 2026

A market analysis is the part of your dental practice business plan that defines your target patients, sizes your local market, and shows why they will choose you over the office down the street.

It is where your plan meets the outside world, which is why lenders read it closely. This is Step 4 in our series, following Step 1 (audience), Step 2 (mission, vision, and values), and Step 3 (company description).

What It Is, and What It Is Not

• Not a description of your practice. That was Step 3, the company description.
  
  
• Not a marketing plan. This section establishes what is true about your market. The marketing plan decides what to do about it.
  
  
• Not a set of facts. If you are opening rather than buying, nearly every number in it is an assumption. The work is making each one traceable.
  
  

That last point is the whole job. You have no chart audit to run and no collections history to analyze, so a lender is not reading this section for data you could not possibly have. They are reading it to see whether your assumptions are sourced, conservative, and consistent with one another.

Five questions cover it. Answer them in order and the section is written. Two to four pages is plenty. Each question ends with the assumption it produces.

1. Who Are Your Patients?

Start with the basics for your service area, then add the piece generic templates skip:

• Age distribution, which drives your hygiene, restorative, pediatric, and implant mix.
  
  
• Household income, and the share of households that can absorb the fees you intend to charge.
  
  
• Household composition, since families book differently than single adults.
  
  
• Employer concentration and languages spoken at home.
  
  

Draw the drive-time boundary first, with any mapping tool, then list the ZIP codes or census tracts inside it and pull the rest from Census Business Builder and the American Community Survey. Neither will draw the boundary for you, which is why this step gets skipped and why so many plans quietly default to a whole county. If you would rather not do it yourself, your local Small Business Development Center will pull most of it at no cost.

Payer Mix

Payer mix moves collections more than patient count does, and it is the piece most often left out. Opening cold you have no plan breakdown to pull, so build it from the outside:

• Carrier provider directories. Search each carrier's find-a-dentist tool by your ZIP. The deepest local rosters belong to the carriers your future patients are most likely holding.
  
  
• HR departments at the large employers nearby, who will usually name the plans they offer. Three or four calls covers most of a suburban market.
  
  
• Carrier fee schedules, for what each plan pays. You see these as you credential, so build on the ones you have and revise as the rest arrive.
  
  
• Your state Medicaid and CHIP dental program, if that population is part of your plan.
  
  
• A dental CPA, consultant, or supply rep who already works with offices in your area, like us!
  
  

Decide your participation strategy before you write this, not after. Fee-for-service, in network with two carriers, and in network with eight are three different practices with three different collection rates.

The assumption. Write it as a sentence with its basis attached. For example:

We assume 55% PPO, 30% fee-for-service, and 15% Medicaid, based on carrier directory density

and the plans offered by the three largest employers inside the drive time.

A lender will accept a stated assumption with a basis behind it. What costs you credibility is a mix that appears in the plan with nothing underneath it.

2. What Do Patients Need That They Are Not Getting?

When patients leave a practice, the reason they give is rarely clinical. It is usually a wait, a bill nobody explained, or an interaction at the front desk.

Those are the openings, and every one of them can be documented from outside a practice you do not own yet:

• New patient wait times nearby, which you can find by calling competitors and asking for the first available new patient appointment.
  
  
• Hours that do not fit working adults or school schedules.
  
  
• Recurring complaints in competitor reviews. Read a year's worth for the three closest offices and note anything that appears more than twice.
  
  
• Procedures local offices refer out. Read their published service menus, then ask the local endodontists and oral surgeons what area general dentists send them.
  
  
• Underserved groups: pediatric, geriatric, special needs, high anxiety, non-English speakers.
  
  

The assumption. One sentence per gap, with the evidence and the date behind it. These become your differentiators in Question 5, so they have to survive being checked.

3. How Big Is Your Market, Really?

Run three numbers. The first two set the boundaries. The third decides your first year, and it is the one you have to defend.

Settle one definition first. An active patient is one seen inside a set window, and the window is your choice: 12, 18, or 24 months. Say which, and use the same one in the market section and in the financials.

Consider the following example:

• What the market can supply. There are 60,000 residents inside a 15-minute drive. The ADA Health Policy Institute put dental utilization at 45% of the population in 2022, so roughly 27,000 are seeking care. That rate moves with age and income, closer to 40% for working-age adults and 52% for children and seniors, so adjust it to the profile you pulled in Question 1. Eighteen general dentists serve the area, which averages about 1,500 active patients each.
  
  
• What your chairs can hold. One hygiene chair, 8 visits per day, 4 days per week, 48 weeks per year comes to 1,536 visits. At two recall visits per patient per year, that supports about 770 active patients. That is a fully booked column, so discount it for open time and no-shows.
  
  
• How fast you get there. On opening day you have zero. Capacity is a ceiling you reach in year two or three, not a number you plan year one around. At 25 new patients a month and 80% retention, you finish year one near 240. Not 770. Both of those are placeholders, not benchmarks, so replace them with figures you can source.
  
  

Notice what the 1,500 tells you. An office carrying 1,500 active patients at two recall visits a year is running roughly two hygiene columns. So the distance between you and the average office nearby is not a marketing gap. It is a second hygiene chair, two or three years out.

Building the Ramp

The first number is published and the second is arithmetic off your floor plan. The third you have to assume, so ground it somewhere other than optimism:

• Ask your lender. Practice lenders underwrite startups constantly and will tell you the ramp they plan against. Start there, then take it down.
  
  
• Ask a dental CPA or consultant who has opened offices in your market and watched the schedule fill. Contact us today to learn more about this!
  
  
• Back into it from your marketing plan. If you are budgeting a channel, its cost per new patient gives you a rate you can defend.
  
  

Then show the downside. Run year one at 15 new patients a month as well as 25, and put both in the plan. A forecast with a stated floor reads as underwriting. A single confident number reads as a guess.

The assumption. Three of them, and they compound: the utilization rate you applied, the capacity your floor plan supports, and the ramp. The most common problem we see in a first draft is a market size built from population alone, with no capacity check and no ramp underneath it. It is also the fastest thing for a lender to poke a hole in.

4. Who Are You Competing With?

Competitor lists run short. Established owners count the practices they know socially and miss the group office that opened in a retail center two miles away. Opening cold you do not have even that much to go on, which forces you to build the list from a record instead of from memory.

Pull every general dentist inside your drive time from the NPPES NPI Registry at CMS, which is free and searchable by city, ZIP, and specialty, or from your state dental board. Both carry retirees and stale addresses, so confirm each on a map, then note the same few facts:

• Ownership model, and whether they are DSO affiliated.
  
  
• Hours, especially evenings and Saturdays.
  
  
• Insurance participation, or fee-for-service.
  
  
• Services they keep in-house.
  
  
• Review count and rating.
  
  

DSO affiliation keeps growing and is most common among early career dentists, though it varies widely by state, so check yours before planning around it.

The assumption. How many practices compete with you, and what the average one carries. Both feed the math in Question 3, so put the date you checked next to each.

5. Why Will Patients Choose You?

Differentiation only counts if a patient can see it before the first appointment. Opening cold, that bar is higher, because you have no reviews and no word of mouth yet. What you pick has to be structural, something true about how the office is built and run, rather than reputational.

Pick one or two and make them provable:

• Access: hours, same day emergencies, online scheduling, short new patient wait.
  
  
• Scope: procedures you keep in house that competitors refer out.
  
  
• Experience: sedation options, comfort, treatment time per visit.
  
  
• Payment: membership plan, transparent fees, in house financing.
  
  
• Relationship: one dentist every visit, family scheduling, continuity of care.
  
  

Test each one twice. Could the office two miles away claim the same sentence? And can you deliver it in month one, with the staff and equipment your loan actually covers?

The assumption. The one or two things you will be able to deliver on opening day, and what they cost to staff.

From Market Size to Revenue

This is where the section earns its keep, because your patient number is the top of your forecast. An established practice starts that math with the patients already on the books. Opening cold, you start with and assumed ramp.

• (New patients per month * months open) – attrition = active patients at year end.
• (Active patients * average annual production per patient) - write-offs by payer = projected collections.

One trap, the two visits per patient per year that sized your chair capacity is a hygiene recall assumption. Total visits, hygiene + restorative, runs higher, so do not carry the recall figure into your production math or you will forecast a practice that never does a crown.

That is why payer mix belongs here and not in the financials. Change the mix and collections move even when the patient count does not.

The Assumption Register

Every assumption above belongs in one place, with its source and the date you checked it. This is the table a lender will mark up.

Common Mistakes

• Defining the market too broadly: Everyone who needs a dentist is not a target market.
  
  
• Skipping the capacity check: Chairs and hours cap your patient count.
  
  
• Planning at steady state from month one: A startup ramps. A forecast without one is not credible.
  
• Listing competitors without comparing them: Same facts for every office.
  
  
• Leaving assumptions unsourced: Every number needs a basis and a date.
  
  

Buying Rather Than Starting?

If you are acquiring a practice rather than starting one up, most of this gets easier. The seller already has an active patient count, a payer mix, and a collections history, so your job shifts from assuming to verifying. Confirm the active count against hygiene visits actually performed, and check whether the payer mix behind those collections is still in force. There is no ramp to assume, but retention through the transition carries the same weight and belongs in the register too.

What Comes Next

The market analysis produces raw material. A SWOT organizes it into strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats, for your practice and for each competitor you profiled. That is Step 5, which we will cover next month.

If you would like help turning your market analysis into projections a lender will accept, that is the kind of work our team does with dentists every day.

Not sure where to start? Contact us today!

References

American Dental Association. (n.d.). Practice modalities among U.S. dentists. Health Policy Institute. Retrieved August 3, 2026, from https://www.ada.org/resources/research/health-policy-institute/dental-practice-research/practice-modalities-among-us-dentists

American Dental Association. (n.d.). The dental care market. Health Policy Institute. Retrieved August 3, 2026, from https://www.ada.org/resources/research/health-policy-institute/dental-care-market

Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. (n.d.). NPPES NPI Registry. Retrieved August 3, 2026, from https://npiregistry.cms.hhs.gov/

U.S. Census Bureau. (n.d.). American Community Survey. Retrieved August 3, 2026, from https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs

U.S. Census Bureau. (n.d.). Census Business Builder. Retrieved August 3, 2026, from https://www.census.gov/data/data-tools/cbb.html

U.S. Small Business Administration. (n.d.). Market research and competitive analysis. Retrieved August 3, 2026, from https://www.sba.gov/business-guide/plan-your-business/market-research-competitive-analysis